Here’s how fertility rate, in-migration is impacting school enrollment in Utah

Enrollment in Utah’s public education system declined by 4,873 students from 2023, a 0.7% decrease and the largest overall decrease since 2015.
There were 667,789 students across the K-12 spectrum for the 2024-25 school year, in all, according to data released last week by the Utah State Board of Education.
While the number of students enrolled in school districts throughout Utah decreased in the last year, the number of students enrolled at charter schools increased.
An interesting trend emerged over the last decade, showing that while enrollment counts in elementary grades have generally decreased, enrollment counts in secondary grades have increased. The total of 12th-grade enrollments is much higher now (53,425) than in 2014 (40,812), while the opposite effect is seen in kindergarten enrollments in those same years (44,776 now compared to 50,363 in 2014).
One factor that could explain this flip in the past decade is Utah’s declining fertility rate.
“We can see that (decline) is already happening,” said Aaron Brough, director of data and statistics for the State School Board.
According to a June 2024 report from the University of Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, Utah — which held the title of highest fertility rate in the nation until 2016 — now sits at No. 4, with a fertility rate of 1.853 children per woman.
That is lower than the fertility rate of 2.1 needed to replace a population.
“There is a natural decline that we’re tracking,” Brough said. “Because of that decrease, the expected number of kids coming into kindergarten, first grade and such is not increasing like we’ve seen in the past where we’ve had really high birth rates.”
Still, the year-to-year decrease hasn’t been drastic but Utah’s schools are no longer faced with the constant increase that has been the case for much of the last decade.
At the same time, Utah is seeing record in-migration as the fastest-growing state in the country. But, diving into the demographics of those flocking to the Beehive State, it makes sense why more new Utahns aren’t counteracting the declining fertility rate.
A recent Gardner Policy Institute report found fewer families have moved to Utah — and more young adults between the ages of 20 and 24 have — between 2018 and 2021. The uptick may be due to a decrease in migration to universities due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during a time when remote learning was common.
The same report found that immigrants are slightly more likely to not be attending school, increasing from 60.8% in 2018 to 65.2% in 2023.
So, Brough said, when Utah did have a higher birth rate, those students are now progressing through the school system, which would account for 12th-grade enrollment growing by nearly 13,000 students from 2014.
“That’s why we’re seeing that flip; 10 years ago, a higher percentage of students were in the lower grades and this year, we’ve seen the opposite of that,” Brough said.
Overall, Brough said that the state of Utah will have to keep a close eye on the demographics of Utah’s growth as the state continues to add to its population, whether by new births or in-migration.
On the State Board of Education’s end, Brough said it will be closely watching the changing dynamics of Utah’s population.
“Effective resource allocation and policy development at the Utah State Board of Education are contingent upon robust enrollment data collection that undergo rigorous quality control checks and analysis. This data provides insights into student demographics, needs, and trends, enabling the board to make informed funding allocation decisions that promote the success of Utah’s students,” Brough said.